The close encounter last week between a Chinese jet fighter and a US reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea has become part of the new normal there. Despite the media hype, the danger of such incidents has subsided somewhat since the fatal 2001 collision.
In that incident, the Chinese jet fighter crashed, killing its pilot, while the US intelligence collection plane made an emergency landing in Hainan. The 24 US crew members were held for 11 days until the United States issued an ambiguous apology. This incident sparked an international crisis, raising US-China tensions almost to the breaking point until cooler heads prevailed.
Fortunately, none of the recent US-China plane encounters have sparked military action; they have become almost routine. As the commander of the US Navy mission in last week’s close encounter said: “It’s [just] another Friday afternoon in the South China Sea.”
Having said that, the flashpoints are multiplying and this is of concern.
US-China relations and military communications are at a nadir, and China’s rival claimants – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – are pushing back militarily and integrating US support into their response to China’s policies and actions.
To the rival claimants, China’s increasing enforcement of its discredited “historic” line claim is over the top. An inability to respond would not only threaten their petroleum development plans, but also their leaders’ credibility. Indeed, these Southeast Asian countries are increasingly driven by a dangerous brew of face-saving, economic need and nationalism.
The close encounter last week between a Chinese jet fighter and a US reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea has become part of the new normal there. Despite the media hype, the danger of such incidents has subsided somewhat since the fatal 2001 collision.
In that incident, the Chinese jet fighter crashed, killing its pilot, while the US intelligence collection plane made an emergency landing in Hainan. The 24 US crew members were held for 11 days until the United States issued an ambiguous apology. This incident sparked an international crisis, raising US-China tensions almost to the breaking point until cooler heads prevailed.
Fortunately, none of the recent US-China plane encounters have sparked military action; they have become almost routine. As the commander of the US Navy mission in last week’s close encounter said: “It’s [just] another Friday afternoon in the South China Sea.”
Having said that, the flashpoints are multiplying and this is of concern.
US-China relations and military communications are at a nadir, and China’s rival claimants – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam – are pushing back militarily and integrating US support into their response to China’s policies and actions.
To the rival claimants, China’s increasing enforcement of its discredited “historic” line claim is over the top. An inability to respond would not only threaten their petroleum development plans, but also their leaders’ credibility. Indeed, these Southeast Asian countries are increasingly driven by a dangerous brew of face-saving, economic need and nationalism.
Although China’s rivals lack the clout to individually, or even collectively, confront China militarily, the US is now signalling a willingness to back them up. The stage is set for disaster.
The Philippines recently signed a new agreement to let the US military use its runways and ports to contain China, and perhaps even install intermediate-range missiles on its soil. The US has also repeatedly and publicly pledged to adhere to their mutual defence treaty if Philippine forces are attacked in the South China Sea.
Moreover, they are renewing joint patrols there; and the Philippines is discussing the same with Australia. Clearly, something could go seriously wrong and spark a US-China clash. It could be intentional or a miscalculation on either side, or even a rogue act by a Philippine commander.
Meanwhile, the Chinese coastguard has stepped up its harassment of its Philippine counterpart, eliciting expressions of US support for the Philippines. While the Philippines has so far refrained – or perhaps, the US has dissuaded it – from invoking the mutual defence treaty, it is becoming harder to avoid doing so.
Some argue that the recent Chinese use of a laser to temporarily “blind” the crew of a Philippine coastguard vessel was an “armed attack”. Although China claimed the laser was a ranging device, it exacerbated the incident by continuing to claim sovereignty over the low-tide feature that lies on the Philippines’ continental shelf and thus clearly belongs to the Philippines.
Moreover, a moment of truth may be approaching for the Philippines. The Marcos Jnr administration is reportedly considering allowing Forum Energy to proceed with petroleum exploration on Reed Bank. The company has asked the government for protection against harassment by China. If provided, it could lead to a military confrontation that could draw in the US.
The US has also been backing up both Indonesia and Malaysia by deploying warships to the vicinity when Chinese military or civilian vessels harassed their contractors that were exploring and exploiting petroleum in their legitimate exclusive economic zones.
Indonesia is gearing up to drill its resources in the Tuna block that China also claims. In late 2021, China told Indonesia to cease drilling in the area and Chinese law enforcement vessels harassed an Indonesian-sanctioned drilling rig operating there. Chinese vessels continue to patrol the area. Now Indonesia has approved the first phase of the field’s development.
The operator’s chairman said the Indonesian navy will “participate in securing the project”, which will become “an affirmation of Indonesia’s sovereignty”. In a show of political will, Indonesia is strengthening its military cooperation with the US. It has also transferred a major naval fleet closer to the area and plans to spend US$125 billion on new weapons.
Even Malaysia – which has been reluctant to confront China – may become involved in incidents this year. In April 2020, when the Chinese coastguard and a survey vessel harassed a Malaysia-sanctioned drilling rig in the West Capella field, the US and Australia sent warships to the area.
Although Malaysia discouraged this militarist approach, it reacted more strongly to a May 2021 flight of Chinese warplanes within 60 miles of its northwestern coastal state of Sarawak. It scrambled its jets and filed a formal protest. Predictably, the US military immediately declared its support for Malaysia.
Vietnam – perhaps the most feisty of China’s rival claimants – is pretty much on its own. Neither the US nor other claimants from Asean – let alone the Association of Southeast Asian Nations itself – are likely to back it against China’s aggression. So this may be where China continues to push the most, as a warning to others.
Flashpoints are multiplying and their trigger points are spreading beyond the direct control of the US. The ball is in China’s court. Will it continue to press until a clash ensues or will it recalculate its strategy?
Source: scmp
